Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Editorial (Inadvertently) IDs Tsunami Issue: Consultation Is Required To Pull Alert Trigger

Both the Advertiser and Star-Bulletin editorialized today on the earthquake rumor, and a key point in the Advertiser’s editorial deserves follow-up.

After noting that a tsunami generated on the Big Island could reach Oahu within 20 or 30 minutes, the editorial says:

…had the (Pacific Tsunami Warning) center determined that there was a tsunami threat, it would have made the decision in conjunction with state Civil Defense (emphasis added) to issue a warning. In addition, sirens, civil air patrols would have been activated and sent along the coastlines to warn people on beaches, where some sirens cannot be heard….

How much “conjunctioning” can be accomplished in 20 minutes -- especially if the event happens when key decision-makers aren't immediately at hand? Will the CAP really be airborne in time to fly out to remote beaches?

Once the warning center believes a destructive tsunami is on its way, why should it be required to coordinate with any agency? And what would Civil Defense’s role be when it takes an urgent tsunami call from the PTWC? Would it ever decide not to activate the tsunami warning system?

Inter-Agency Talking Costs Lives

Of course not. This penchant for the PTWC to work through other agencies is a huge problem. As our sister blog Tsunami Lessons has written repeatedly, thousands of people died around the Indian Ocean in December 2004 because of an insistence to work through and coordinate with other government organizations.

It must be stated this bluntly: the PTWC’s tsunami warning standard operating procedure has cost lives and will do so again if not reformed.

Tsunami Lessons’ very first post on January 2, 2005 quoted a Honolulu Advertiser story on what went wrong after the PTWC suspected a tsunami: “…in the age of wireless communications, the Internet and 24-hour news, a catastrophic wall of water was able to cross an ocean and devastate a dozen nations’ coastlines without notice.”

The next day, Tsunami Lessons included quotes from an NPR story on how scientists reacted to the realization that a killer tsunami was racing toward unsuspecting populations:

"Other U.S. scientists who monitor earthquakes say when they realized how big the quake really was there was no clear way to get the information to authorities who might have been able to warn people in time.” And, “There was knowledge that a tsunami was being generated and that information was available, but the problem we ran into was that there were not appropriate agencies in places like India and in Somalia on the East and the Horn of Africa region. There was no system set up by which we could take that information and translate it into actions that the public could react to.”

The reason there was no notice the public could react to was that the PTWC insists on working through other agencies – just as the editorial today suggests. The PTWC and NOAA mindset is weak on direct action that would put critical information in the hands of the ultimate consumer as quickly as possible. In fact, as Tsunami Lessons reported exclusively on March 26, 2005, “The National Weather Service won’t allow the PTWC to call the media.” The quote was by PTWC Director Charles McCreery during this writer’s visit to the Ewa Beach center.

Cut Out the Middleman

Nearly two years later, the PTWC and State Civil Defense seem to be using the same model: The PTWC first contacts Civil Defense for consultations and then a warning is sounded.

That model eventually will cost people their lives in Hawaii. It’s time for these agencies to shed their bureaucratic shackles and devise a fast-reaction, no-wait protocol to alert people in danger.

Never again should people die while tsunami experts wring their hands about an alleged inability to warn them of their peril.

Some people bought that excuse after the Indian Ocean tsunami. That won’t be the case if a Big Island quake triggers a Hawaiian Islands tsunami and warnings are too late because agencies were “in conjunction” with one another.

What’s More Important – Chasing Hoax's Origins Or Perfecting Information Flow to the Public?

Civil Defense officials apparently spent much of their time yesterday investigating the origins of Sunday's earthquake hoax.

Before they get too far down the track with this effort, we have to ask: Will knowing the origins prevent another hoax? CHORE believes it’s more important to know why the hoax couldn’t be knocked down before it spread unchecked.

We learned in yesterday’s news reports that Civil Defense initiated “crawls” on some television programming Sunday evening (but not all programming and not on all stations) to address the hoax.

TV crawls can reach some of the public, but they have obvious limitations; they’re here one moment and gone the next, perhaps not to return for half an hour or more. And then there’s the problem of having to be in front of a TV set to see a crawl. If you’re heading off to fill your car’s gas tank because you think a tsunami's coming, no television crawl will reach you.

Maximizing the Message

So far, we’ve heard nothing about whether Civil Defense launched a radio effort to counteract the hoax. The dozens of radio stations on Oahu represent a tremendous communications resource for Civil Defense. Focusing on a handful of them would reach a good chunk of the listening audience at any given time.

Once those listeners have heard the message, they can use their own communication networks to tell others what’s happening. Cell phones spread rumors, and they can knock them down, too.

Because the radio option has gone unreported, CHORE wonders whether Civil Defense officials actually did activate it, and we welcome any information they wish to offer to clarify the point.

We also hope they'll spend less time sleuthing the hoax and instead figure out how to respond as effectively as possible to the next emergency – real or imagined.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Public Gullibility for Earthquake, Tsunami Hoax Shows Extent of Education Challenge Ahead

One would think most if not all Hawaii residents would know by now that earthquakes are basically unpredictable and would have recognized yesterday’s “prediction” of a 9.0 quake for the hoax it was.

Didn't happen. Hundreds or maybe thousands of island residents reacted to the rumor with panic gas buying and by calling the police, civil defense, newspapers, TV stations and even the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, where a staffer said he was “unable to get any work done” because of the calls, according to the Honolulu Star-Bulletin. (Note to the PTWC: Please ignore the crank calls and tend to your important work.)

Civil Defense officials now have “public education” on their to-do list, in addition to all the other fixes that earthquake-related events have suggested over the past six weeks.

The challenge is huge. First there’s the near-term requirement to squelch rumors in the early stages with messages to the public over radio and television outlets. The newspapers mention "crawls" over television programming but nothing about radio announcements; a series of "crawls" on television hardly seems adequate.

Reaching the Masses

When that promised public meeting eventually is held to discuss all these emergency communications issues, it will be worth asking Civil Defense whether it used radio stations yesterday. Did officials go on radio air repeatedly to knock down the rumor? Was there even staff available at the designated emergency broadcast station (KSSK) on Sunday night to take their calls?

Long-term education probably begins in grade school. Tilly Smith, a 10-year-old English schoolgirl, saved about 100 people from near-certain death at a Thai resort on December 26, 2004 by putting her geography lessons to work when she saw the water recede. Her awareness saved them from the tsunami.

It would be good to know much instruction Hawaii school kids receive on earthquakes and tsunamis. If they do cover these subjects, their parents should help them with their homework.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Citizens’ Complaints, Suggestions Prompt New Post-Earthquake Protocols at Civil Defense

November 26 Update: Today's Star-Bulletin carries an Associated Press story that's essentially a rewrite of yesterday's Advertiser report. CHORE participants should take note of -- as well as some satisfaction in -- the third paragraph: "Officials took the step after critics said the state should have done a better job informing residents after last month's 6.7 magnitude earthquake...."

Hawaii residents now know that if they push a rope hard enough and long enough, even a rope will move.

The new post-earthquake protocols described in today’s Honolulu Advertiser are a direct response to your concerns and complaints about the information void that dragged on for hours after the October 15th earthquakes.

State Civil Defense says Thursday was the first time the Emergency Alert System was used to announce that no tsunami had been generated by an earthquake.

On October 15th, residents living near the shore had no such help in knowing whether a tsunami was heading their way following the two strong earthquakes that rattled the island chain.

Officials later admitted they made a conscious decision – and an obvious mistake, in CHORE’s opinion – to not issue a no-tsunami message because they thought the public would panic. The new protocols seem to acknowledge that the public deserves more credit than that.

Big Island Leads the Way

The story also notes that Big Island officials “…use local radio stations as their primary method of communicating with the public in emergencies…” Mayor Harry Kim – who earned his spurs as the island’s Civil Defense chief – reportedly was talking to Big Island radio stations inside of 10 minutes after the quake.

Good for him and them! It’s unfortunate that their common-sense solution to getting the word out – using radio’s unmatched ubiquity and flexibility – seems to be the exception, not only in Hawaii but about around the Pacific Rim.

CHORE’S sister blog – Tsunami Lessons – was founded one week after the Christmas 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on the premise that a tsunami warning transmitted immediately via the major networks and ultimately to consumers watching television and listening to radio could have saved untold numbers of lives. (Readers are invited to plow through several dozen posts at Tsunami Lessons, starting with the first one.)

Big Island officials are validating that premise on a micro scale, and we urge officials at NOAA and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center to pay attention.

However, glitches still exist in even that efficient communications channel. Several radio stations that serve Kona residents were knocked off the air by a power blackout on Thursday. Backup generation has been ordered by at least one station.

Trust Your Own Eyes

Today’s Advertiser story prompts CHORE to rethink its Thanksgiving Day post and the time KGMB-TV ran its first EAS voice and visual alert after the earthquake.

We knew an alert interrupted the NFL game at 10 a.m. and therefore included that time in our first post. But domestic chores had interfered with nonstop football viewing, so we called the station to confirm that 10 o'clock was the first such announcement.

After a short delay to allegedly check with the control room, a staffer said the notice was first aired at 9:35, and that’s what we posted in a revision. In light of Civil Defense’s statement that it first generated an EAS alert at 9:57, it would seem KGMB fudged its time and that 10 a.m. was indeed its first EAS message.

Instead of a 15-minute delay after the 9:20 quake in generating an EAS alert, State Civil Defense now confirms a 37-minute delay, which accentuates the whole thrust of Thursday’s CHORE post. If tsunamis can begin striking other islands 15 minutes after a major Big Island quake, even a quarter hour is unacceptable; 37 minutes is inexcusable.

Why Does Progress Take So Long?

Civil Defense’s spokesman says in today’s story that the 37-minute lag on Thursday was because (quoting the story) “…Civil Defense officials had not yet formalized procedures on issuing a post-earthquake tsunami all-clear message on the Emergency Alert System….”

The Thanksgiving Day earthquake was 39 days after our big October 15th wakeup call. Should it really take more than five weeks to fix a major problem in the State’s emergency response procedures? As of Thursday, it still wasn’t fixed. What’s the status now, and what’s holding up progress – too many middle people, too much bureaucracy, too many meetings of the Comprehensive Communications Review Committee?

Yet another earthquake (magnitude 4.3) shook the Big Island this morning. Public safety requires significant enhancements in emergency communications procedures now, not later, and not because of a New Year's resolution. Citizens can't wait that long.

Friday, November 24, 2006

A Proposal for a Tsunami Emergency Alert Procedure: “Feel the Quake, Activate!”

Scientists and Civil Defense professionals must roll their eyes when CHORE and other amateurs come up with suggestions to improve response procedures.

But maybe simple solutions work. The present goal is to generate informational alerts to the public as quickly as possible following earthquakes to tell us whether a tsunami has or hasn’t been generated. The public needs to know either way.

As we see it at CHORE, both scenarios require an urgent response by Civil Defense. In post-October 15th Hawai`i, the public is looking for reassurance that officialdom can and will communicate with us when the chips are down.

Yesterday’s response was far superior to what happened in October, when earthquakes triggered an island-wide power outage on Oahu. But still, as noted in yesterday’s post, 15 minutes passed after the Thanksgiving Day earthquake before an Emergency Alert System announcement was made in a screen crawl and by voice on KGMB-TV around 9:35.

Could the EAS announcement have happened earlier? Maybe it could. KITV apparently cut in with its own information once the no-tsunami call had been made by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. KITV’s first news on the quake probably was broadcast before 9:35. KHON reportedly also went with its own announcement rather than the EAS screen crawl around 9:50.

Reacting As Quickly As Possible

But here’s the key question: Are the collective efforts of the PTWC, State Civil Defense and the EAS capable of issuing automated announcements over TV and radio sooner than 15 minutes after a quake? If the PTWC knows within three to five minutes what’s up, why can’t an EAS message be triggered then and there?

A 15-minute delay won’t be good enough in a tsunami situation. Certainly, individual citizens must take responsibility for their own safety; officials constantly preach that if we feel a major temblor, we must immediately leave areas that could be inundated.

Isn’t the same advice applicable to first responders? If they feel a significant quake, shouldn’t the system immediately prepare to generate an EAS message?

CHORE thinks it should and therefore suggests this simple mantra:

“If you feel the quake, activate.”


If a shaker is strong enough to be felt throughout the island chain, officials must activate the EAS on the assumption that people will immediately want to know what’s happening. It would seem they could do that once PTWC has made an evaluation of the earthquake’s strength and tsunami potential.

We’ve had two “dry runs” since October 15th to put into practice lessons learned on Earthquake Sunday. Response time is improving, but it’s far too soon for anyone responsible for emergency communications to be satisfied.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

15 Minutes Pass Before ‘No-Tsunami Crawl' Appears on TV after Thanksgiving Earthquake

This morning’s earthquake hit the Big Island in approximately the same place as the two big October 15th quakes. The USGS has pegged it at 5.0, a “moderate” jolt that occurred about an hour ago at 9:20 a.m.

According to the Honolulu Advertiser’s first online report posted at 9:42, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a message three minutes after the quake, giving it a 4.5 magnitude. Here’s a later Advertiser report.

Either at that time or shortly thereafter, the Center passed the word that no tsunami was expected. Although exact times aren’t immediately known, it’s safe to assume that the no-tsunami message went out around 9:30 or even sooner.

According to KGMB-TV, its audio of the station's coverage of an NFL game was interrupted at 9:35 and a “crawl” moved across the top of the screen about the earthquake and telling the audience that no tsunami was expected. (10/25 Update: KGMB's assertion that it broadcast the EAS message at 9:35 was later shown to be erroneous in this post.)

Continuing the questions posted here at CHORE two days ago, it’s legitimate to ask why it still took 15 minutes after the quake for Emergency Alert System authorities to issue a no-tsunami message to the public -- or at least to the public watching channel 9?

On October 15th, the Warning Center knew within five minutes that no tsunami had been generated. If a tsunami had been triggered today, could authorities have issued a warning quicker than 15 minutes? Would emergency sirens been sounded before then?

The 15-Minute Window

We’ve always been told that a tsunami generated around the Big Island would sweep across the island chain at jetliner speed and arrive within 15 to 30 minutes depending on the island.

With that being the critical piece of information, why can’t any kind of tsunami message – a warning or a no-tsunami alert – be disseminated over TV and radio inside of 15 minutes after a significant earthquake on or near the Big Island?

Add the Thanksgiving Earthquake to the other topics to be discussed at State Civil Defense’s public meeting, which has not yet been scheduled.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Turkey, Shopping Soon To Dominate; Will it Leave Time for Emergency Response Fixes?

CHORE won’t be surprised if the whole emergency response issue is set aside for the next six weeks. Thanksgiving, shopping, parties, presents, eggnog – it’s all too much.

Besides, the earthquakes were weeks ago, and the 2006 hurricane season was as calm as they get in the Central Pacific. Complacency Check: What date in 1982 did Hurricane Iwa strike the Hawaiian Islands? Find the answer at the bottom of today's post.

The Comprehensive Communications Review Committee began meeting five weeks ago today. Is it still meeting? Who knows? You can’t tell from the media coverage, because there’s virtually none. Only one story has run on the committee’s review of the October 15th communications failures and discussions to make things better.

The only mention of the public meeting CHORE has urged State Civil Defense to hold was in a letter from the agency’s vice director posted here a week ago. We’re still waiting for the staff member to call about scheduling a meeting.

So as we slide into the holidays, the best we can do now is keep alive some of the issues and questions that remain unanswered:

Why did the Emergency Alert System fail to kick in soon after the earthquakes? Has it been fixed?
Do officials now acknowledge that the decision to not issue a “no tsunami” message caused undue fear in the population? Are new guidelines in place that will encourage a “non-event” message to the public?
How much time passed after the first quake hit before Civil Defense officials were on the air? What changes have been implemented to speed the response?
What’s been done to encourage broadcast stations to strengthen their ability to stay on the air in a power blackout? Are they reacting? Is Civil Defense satisfied?
Does Civil Defense have new procedures that will facilitate communication with the stations in any kind of emergency?
Where are the “gap areas” that State Civil Defense says exist in the emergency siren system? According to a media report, 148 sirens are needed to fill them. Why wouldn’t officials disclose the gap locations in that report, and have they changed their minds? Don’t people living in the gaps deserve to know they’re not protected by the siren system?
What are the guidelines for issuing tsunami warnings and advisories? Are new protocols being written to address tsunamis that are too small for a full-scale siren alert but large enough to cause harbor damage? What is Civil Defense doing to improve the information flow to harbor masters? Is Civil Defense talking to outside agencies to benefit from their experience?

We could go on, but there’s shopping to do and a tree to trim. In the meantime, CHORE hopes the media will take a break from covering the standard fare and look into some of these issues – or is news conference news the only news that’s covered in this town?

And maybe State Civil Defense can interrupt the holiday routine to at least reveal the latest planning for the public meeting it promised.

Complacency Check answer: November 23.

MISSION: To Ensure the Lahaina Fire Tragedy Will Be the Last Time Hawaii Emergency Management so Poorly Serves the Public

The cause of the August 2023 wildfire that destroyed Lahaina, Maui and killed at least 101 residents is still unknown at this writing. What ...